Gold in a Crisis: Why Prices Can Fall as Geopolitical Risk Rises

Webinar Overview

Gold is widely viewed as a safe-haven asset, so many traders naturally expect it to rise whenever war breaks out or geopolitical tensions intensify. In practice, however, gold’s reaction is more complex, and prices can sometimes fall even as uncertainty and risk increase. 

In this webinar, we will explore the main forces that can push gold lower during periods of geopolitical stress, including a stronger US dollar, rising bond yields and real interest rates, liquidity needs, profit-taking, and shifts in monetary-policy expectations. We will also examine the difference between gold’s initial reaction to a geopolitical shock and the trend that may develop afterward, and why gold should be analysed within a broader market framework rather than through the assumption that geopolitical risk automatically means higher prices. 

The session is designed to help participants interpret gold more objectively by connecting geopolitical developments with the monetary, financial, and market forces that ultimately influence price. 

Learning Outcomes

By the end of this webinar, participants will be able to:

• Understand what divergence represents and what it may indicate about market momentum.
• Distinguish between bullish, bearish and other common forms of divergence.
• Learn how momentum indicators can provide early information without acting as standalone entry signals.
• Place divergence within the context of trend, support and resistance, market structure and price confirmation.
• Recognize why divergence signals can fail or appear too early.
• Build a structured checklist that combines context, confirmation, invalidation and risk management.